The 2021 PLL Championship is nearly here. It will either be a Whipsnakes three-peat and continuation of the only status quo the PLL has ever known, or it will be the Chaos exacting revenge from the 2020 championship and claiming their first-ever league crown.

The margins are fine, and the matchups will be a massive determinant in which team walks away with smiles and cheers. Taking a look at the advanced statistics via Winston Analytica, I’ve discovered the head-to-head battles and areas on the field that have the best chance of impacting the outcome of the 2021 PLL Championship.

It’s Whipsnakes and Chaos again for all the marbles. Who will have the edge?

2021 PLL Championship: Who Will Have the Edge?

Key Matchups

Zed Williams (4.335 goals added, 25 goals created by the dodge)/Matt Rambo (19 goals created by the dodge) vs. Jarrod Neumann/Jack Rowlett (6 goals allowed by the dodge/two-man game each)

People believe the show is the box-style offense, but the defense has been doing its job just as well as of late. Jack Rowlett and Jarrod Neumann are a physical combo that will matchup will to Matt Rambo’s physical dodging style. I think Rowlett and Neumann are physical enough to slow down Rambo, maybe even hold him to a single goal.

But I also don’t believe there is a defense alive that can stop Zedzilla. It just doesn’t seem to matter who guards him, especially in the playoffs. I expect him to feast in the PLL Championship, per usual.

Advantage: Whipsnakes 

Joe Nardella (10.81 goals added by possessions) vs. Max Adler (.46 goals added by possessions)

Max Adler is improving, but Joe Nardella is the third-best faceoff specialist in the game right now, and this doesn’t even factor in his ability to create transition opportunities. I expect Nardella to go just south of 60% on faceoff wins in the PLL championship. 

Advantage: Whipsnakes 

Josh Byrne (-2.56 goals added, 21 goals created by the dodge) vs. Matt Dunn (13 goals allowed by the dodge/two-man game) 

Josh Byrne is not the one shooting efficiently on Chaos, but he is the team’s best initiator. The Whips have a solid defense, but the most exploited pole is Matt Dunn. This is mainly due to volume and the matchups he sees. However, other defenders in similar positions fair much better (Rowlett and Neumann combined have allowed fewer goals by the dodge than Matt Dunn).

Advantage: Chaos

Key Player: Blaze Riorden

It’s rare that the most important player isn’t at the faceoff X or playing attack, but the 2021 PLL Championship is an exception. We discontinued our goalie analytic, because tracking every shot manually is too exhausting, but in 2019, Blaze Riorden prevented 10.14 goals more than the average goalie based on our model, factoring in shot location. The next-closest goalie prevented 6.34! That was also a season where he was saving only 55%, and he’s now saving 61%!

Riorden is doing better now than in the year where he was by far the best goalie, so what does that tell you about his influence on games in 2021?

Wayne Winston’s Spreadsheet Picks

Chaos 12, Whipsnakes 11 – 55% win probability for Chaos

Note: This doesn’t factor in poor performance during Rambo’s absence.

Greg’s Prediction 

Whipsnakes 13, Chaos 11 

Both these teams are clicking at the right time, and it’s hard to pick either of them to lose. However, I’m not one to bet against something that hasn’t happened in three years. The Whipsnakes haven’t lost a playoff game in nearly three full PLL playoffs, and I don’t want to pick against that trend for the 2021 championship. 

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The PLL Semifinals will be upon us this weekend, with four teams fighting it out for the two spots in the 2021 PLL Championship. Using advanced stats, Winston Analytica has identified the crucial matchups in each contest that will play a major role in determining who survives for a shot at a title.

You can learn more about these stats and how they’ve been measured throughout the season here.

What the Stats Tell Us About the PLL Semifinals

Atlas v Chaos – Sunday, Sept. 5 at 11 a.m. EST

A revamped Atlas motion offense takes on a box-oriented Chaos team in what is sure to be a game loaded with goals.

Key Exploitable Matchup: Trevor Baptiste (18.17 goals added by possessions) v Max Adler (.92 goals added by possessions)

I believe the difference will ultimately not be the team with the better offense but the team that plays more offense. That will be Atlas, due to arguably the best FOGO on the planet. This is not a criticism of Max Adler as much as it is a statement that he will have his hands full.

Heavyweight Matchup: O-Mid Bryan Costabile (3.04 goals added, 15 goals created) v SSDM Mark Glicini (12 goals allowed)

One of the most talented O-mids meets one of the most talented D-mids to start off the 2021 PLL Semifinals. Costabile can do it all, and Glicini can do much more than step in front of a shot. Costabile has a slight advantage, but Glicini could win this battle.

Wayne Winston Projected Score: 13-11, Atlas (62% win probability)

Waterdogs v Whipsnakes – Sunday, Sept. 5 at 1:30 p.m. EST

The No. 1 seed meets the defending champs in a heavyweight battle between two potent offenses in the PLL Semifinals.

Key Exploitable Matchup: O-Mid Mikie Schlosser (2.475 goals added, 13 goals crated by the dodge) v SSDM Jake Bernhardt (19 goals allowed by the dodge)

One of the best midfield dodgers in the league meets the league’s most-exploited SSDM. Look for Schlosser to be the go-to initiator as the Whipsnakes poles are less exploitable than Bernhardt.

Heavyweight Matchup: Whipsnakes attack v Waterdogs close defense

Zed Williams (2.875 goals added, 18 goals created), Matt Rambo (1.505 goals added, 13 goals created), Jay Carlson (3.98 goals added, 1 goal created) v Eli Gobrecht (7 goals allowed), Ben Randall (3 goals allowed), Liam Byrnes (3 goals allowed)

An attack-heavy Whipsnakes offense meets a talented Waterdogs defense in the second PLL semifinals showdown. Liam Byrnes has an astounding 20 caused turnovers, paired with only getting beat on-ball three times, which is an amazing combination. However, this defense will have its hands full against two of the best attackmen in the game in Rambo and Zed. I don’t believe a defense exists in the world that can stop them from producing.

Wayne Winston Projected Score: 13-11, Waterdogs (62% win probability)

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The PLL Quarterfinals are right around the corner. It’s win-or-go-home time, and six of the league’s eight clubs are on the chopping block in the opening round.

To help us better understand what we can expect to see this weekend in the quarterfinals, I’ve taken a dive into some in-depth stats that can paint a picture of how players have impacted the play on the PLL field.

Bear in mind, these numbers included players from all eight teams in the PLL, not just those competing in the quarterfinals. Also, it’s important to note that these statistics are meant as a guide to improve understanding of the PLL season, not gospel for how good a player is or isn’t. There is more than one measure of a player’s success, and these numbers are everchanging throughout the season.

What Can These Stats Tell Us about the PLL Quarterfinals?

I should also mention that I’m human and do all tracking by re-watching games and recoding by hand. Calculation errors are possible.

Players in bold are on a team that’s active for the PLL Quarterfinals. Players that are italicized have a bye to the semifinals, and those that are in normal typeface are not in the postseason.

Goals Added

Goals added is a shooting analytic that uses the average percentage of possession retainment for off-cage shots and assumes all on-cage shots are saves (not a given) to factor in who is adding the most goals for their team.

This is the top 10 of the list.

Lots of Redwoods and Cannons in that top 10, but Sergio Perkovic won’t be available this weekend. Can Jules Heningburg add enough goals to get the Redwoods their first playoff win over the Whips? Can the Cannons trio do enough offensively to lift their team to an upset in the PLL Quarterfinals as the No. 7 seed?

This is the bottom 10, with some great players near the bottom.

Points Created by the Dodge

This stat awards a point if a dodge sets up a goal by either drawing a slide of the player scoring himself.

Lyle Thompson, Myles Jones, and Grant Ament are the same top three as my last update from July 22, and they’ll all be playing this weekend in the PLL Quarterfinals. How big of an impact can they each have for their teams, and will it be enough for them to advance?

Points Allowed

This is the defensive equivalent of the points created stat (you don’t want to be on this list). Your one-on-one defense created offense either through a goal being allowed or a slide leading to a goal. I had to make some judgment calls in the two-man game.

Remember that the players who get challenged the most are most likely to get on this list, so take it with a grain of salt. Also, guarding Lyle Thompson is a good way to find your number up here.

Let’s break it down by team, ordering players on each PLL squad by how many points they’ve allowed. This can give us a good look at how balanced a team’s defense is and where opposition might be able to exploit matchups.

FaceOffs Equated to Goals

Using the approximate value of a possession, we see how many goals each FOGO adds by gaining or losing possessions in faceoffs.

Trevor Baptiste leaped to the top of the leaderboard, overtaking TD Ierlan and Joe Nardella, who both improved their numbers from my last update. The Redwoods will be without Ierlan in the PLL quarterfinals, though. Will that come with consequences? Will having the two other biggest impact FOGOs who will play this weekend make a big difference for Atlas and Whipsnakes?

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We’ve got another PLL stats analysis update, this time with deeper details, especially for goals added. And Jules Heningburg can’t stop adding goals.

These statistics are meant to serve as a guide to better understand what’s happening on PLL fields, not a steadfast rule for how good a player is or isn’t. Everything is fluid, and these stats aren’t the only measures of a player’s success.

Jules Heningburg Keeps Adding Goals: PLL Stats

It’s also important to note that I’m human and do all tracking by re-watching games and recording by hand. Calculation errors are possible.

Goals Added

Goals added is a shooting analytic that uses the average percentage of possession retainment for off-cage shots and assumes all on-cage shots are saves (not a given) to factor in who is adding the most goals for their team.

This is the top half of the goals added list:

This is the bottom half of the list, and there are some great players near the bottom who may surprise you:

Points Created by the Dodge

This stat awards a point if a dodge sets up a goal by either drawing a slide of the player scoring himself.

Points Allowed

This is the defensive equivalent of the points created stat (you don’t want to be on this list). Your one-on-one defense created offense either through a goal being allowed or a slide leading to a goal. I had to make some judgment calls in the two-man game.

Remember that the players who get challenged the most are most likely to get on this list, so take it with a grain of salt. Also, guarding Lyle Thompson is a good way to find your name here.

To make this stat easier to understand, I’m sorting by position (SSDMs have it the roughest here).

High Volume SSDMs

Defense

Faceoffs Equated to Goals

Using the approximate value of a possession, we see how many goals each FOGO adds by gaining or losing possessions in faceoffs.

Updates to these stats from Winston Analytica will come every other week, providing you with up-to-date in-depth statistical analysis to give a deeper understanding of what’s happening every weekend. We shall see if Jules Heningburg can keep it up as the goals added leader, if TD Ierlan continues to dominate the faceoff leaderboard, if Lyle Thompson keeps on creating points, and more.

You can find more about these stats at @WAStatistics on Twitter.

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I dissected four PLL stats that tell the truth two weeks ago. Now through four weeks of games, I’ve updated those four key stats that reveal a deeper truth about what is happening on the field in the 2021 PLL. Here’s a hint: Will Manny is a goal machine.

Will Manny Adds Goals: PLL Stats

Keep in mind, a lot of manual tracking goes into determining these stats. It is possible that errors have been made in measuring everything necessary to calculate these numbers. Please bear with me.

Goals Added

Goals added is a shooting analytic that uses the average percentage of possession retainment for off-cage shots and assumes all on-cage shots are saves (not a given) to factor in who is adding the most goals for their team.

Points Created by the Dodge

This stat awards a point if a dodge sets up a goal by either drawing a slide or the player scoring himself.

Points Allowed

This is the defensive equivalent of the points created stat (you don’t want to be on this list). Your one-on-one defense created offense either through a goal being allowed or a slide leading to a goal. I had to make some judgment calls in the two-man game.

Remember that the players who get challenged the most are most likely to get on this list, so take it with a grain of salt. Also, guarding Lyle Thompson is a good way to find your name here.

Faceoffs Equated to Goals

Using the approximate value of a possession, we see how many goals each FOGO adds by gaining or losing possessions in faceoffs.

Updates to these stats from Winston Analytica will come every other week, providing you with up-to-date in-depth statistical analysis to give a deeper understanding of what’s happening every weekend. We shall see if Will Manny can keep it up as the goals added leader, if TD Ierlan remains atop the faceoff leaderboard, if Myles Jones continues to create points, and more.

You can find more about these stats at @WAStatistics on Twitter.

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The stat gurus are back again with an update on some telling PLL stats through week two. Is your favorite player doing as well as you thought? These stats tell the truth.

PLL Stats: By The Numbers

Goals Added

A shooting analytic that uses the average percentage of possession retainment for off cage shots and assumes all on cage shots are saves (not a given) to factor in who is adding the most goals for their team.

Top 10

Bottom 10 

Points Created by the Dodge

This stat awards a point if a dodge sets up a goal by either drawing a slide or the player scoring himself. WARNING a lot of tracking goes into this so it’s possible errors were made

Points Allowed

The defensive equivalent of our points created stat. (You don’t want to be on this list). You’re one on one defense created offense either through a goal being allowed or a slide leading to a goal. I had to make some judgment calls in the two man game. WARNING: This requires a lot of tracking and it’s possible errors were made. Remember that the people who get challenged the most are most likely to get on this list so take it with a grain of salt. Also guarding Lyle Thompson is a good way to get on this list.

Face Offs Equated to Goals

Using the approximate value of a possession we see how many goals each FOGO gains by gaining or losing possessions in face offs

It takes a tremendous amount of time to sift through film and track these PLL stats, we thank the Winston’s for their efforts!

For a raw look at team and individual stats visit the PLL stats page.

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